BLM REA CYR 2013 Near-term Future (2020s) Infestation Vulnerability

Metadata Updated: November 12, 2020

Survey intensity for non-native plant infestations in the Central Yukon area is not strong or consistent; we therefore developed an analytical model to identify areas that are perceived to be currently vulnerable to invasion by non-native plant species. This analysis is intended to supplement the empirical data, identify areas in which future surveys may be directed, and evaluate the potential change in vulnerability in the future. The analytical approach used here (variance partitioning via classification and regression tree) facilitates the evaluation of a large number of variables that may have non-linear relationships and complex interactions. This approach has been used elsewhere to understand patterns of plant invasion vulnerabilities. The purpose of this dataset is too identify vulnerability to invasion by non-native plants per 5th level hydrologic unit. We first determined the climate, habitat, and anthropogenic variables that are associated with watersheds having weed problems in Interior Alaska based on the AKEPIC dataset. We then determined which watersheds in the Central Yukon study area match those climate, habitat, and anthropogenic variables currently. Finally, we determined which watersheds in the Central Yukon study area are projected to have those climate, habitat, and anthropogenic variables in the future. Overall, we anticipate that invasive plant establishment will be geographically restricted in the current, near-term future, and long-term future. Most ecosystems and wildlife habitats will not be impacted by invasive species establishment. Our analysis indicated that percent developed land is the most important drivers of plant invasion at this scale. Areas predicted to be of highest current vulnerabilities follow the primary highways. Invasion vulnerabilities based on this model are anticipated to change in the long-term future time step, while no changes in watershed classification occur in the near term. The most dramatic change anticipated is associated with increased density of secondary roads associated with the “Roads to Resources” to the Ambler Mining District and preferred road to Nome. With earlier thaw dates, and potential increases in highway road density by 2060, HUCs along upper Steese Highway near Circle and the watershed around Kiana are predicted to transition from low vulnerabilities to high vulnerabilities.

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Metadata Date October 13, 2017
Metadata Created Date November 12, 2020
Metadata Updated Date November 12, 2020
Reference Date(s) July 11, 2016 (publication)
Frequency Of Update notPlanned

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOI Open Data

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Date October 13, 2017
Metadata Created Date November 12, 2020
Metadata Updated Date November 12, 2020
Reference Date(s) July 11, 2016 (publication)
Responsible Party Alaska Center for Conservation Science, University of Alaska Anchorage (Point of Contact)
Contact Email
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Bbox East Long -141.00179622
Bbox North Lat 69.0791829686
Bbox South Lat 62.0096770372
Bbox West Long -163.923094123
Coupled Resource
Frequency Of Update notPlanned
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Metadata Language
Metadata Type geospatial
Progress completed
Spatial Data Service Type
Spatial Reference System
Spatial Harvester True

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