BLM REA YKL 2011 Percent Burn 2050s ALFRESCO Outputs

Metadata Updated: November 12, 2020

This shapefile includes projections of annual area burned, fire return interval, and percent forest (current decade only) for the current (2010s), near-term (2020s) and long-term (2050s and 2060s) decades, for the A2 emissions scenario, for 3rd level HUCs within the YKL REA study area. Values were obtained by running 100 repetitions of the Alaska Frame-Based Ecosystem Code (ALFRESCO) model for the top five performing global climate models in the Arctic at a 1x1 km resolution. These outputs were then averaged together to determine the composite, 5 model average, the decades of interest extracted, and the resulting table exported as a shapefile. For background on ALFRESCO, please refer to: Is Alaska's Boreal Forest Now Crossing a Major Ecological Threshold? Daniel H. Mann, T. Scott Rupp, Mark A. Olson, and Paul A. Duffy Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 2012 44 (3), 319-331 The spatial extent is clipped to a YKL REA boundary bounding box. Overview of climate data input to the model: Each set of files originates from one of five top ranked global circulation models or is calculated as a 5 Model Average. These models are referred to by the acronyms: cccma_cgcm31, mpi_echam5, gfdl_cm21, ukmo_hadcm3, miroc3_2_medres, or 5modelavg. For a description of the model selection process, please see Walsh et al. 2008. Global Climate Model Performance over Alaska and Greenland. Journal of Climate. v. 21 pp. 6156-6174 Emission scenarios in brief: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) created a range of scenarios to explore alternative development pathways, covering a wide range of demographic, economic and technological driving forces and resulting greenhouse gas emissions. The B1 scenario describes a convergent world, a global population that peaks in mid-century, with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy. The Scenario A1B assumes a world of very rapid economic growth, a global population that peaks in mid-century, rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies, and a balance between fossil fuels and other energy sources. The A2 scenario describes a very heterogeneous world with high population growth, slow economic development and slow technological change. These files are bias corrected and downscaled via the delta method using PRISM ( 1961-1990 2km data as baseline climate. Absolute anomalies are utilized for temperature variables. Proportional anomalies are utilized for precipitation variables. Please see for a description of the downscaling process.

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License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

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Metadata Date December 20, 2017
Metadata Created Date November 12, 2020
Metadata Updated Date November 12, 2020
Reference Date(s) September 4, 2013 (publication)
Frequency Of Update asNeeded

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOI Open Data

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Date December 20, 2017
Metadata Created Date November 12, 2020
Metadata Updated Date November 12, 2020
Reference Date(s) September 4, 2013 (publication)
Responsible Party Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP) (Point of Contact)
Contact Email
Access Constraints Use Constraints: These data are provided by Bureau of Land Management (BLM) "as is" and may contain errors or omissions. The User assumes the entire risk associated with its use of these data and bears all responsibility in determining whether these data are fit for the User's intended use. The information contained in these data is dynamic and may change over time. The data are not better than the original sources from which they were derived, and both scale and accuracy may vary across the data set. These data may not have the accuracy, resolution, completeness, timeliness, or other characteristics appropriate for applications that potential users of the data may contemplate. The User is encouraged to carefully consider the content of the metadata file associated with these data. These data are neither legal documents nor land surveys, and must not be used as such. Official records may be referenced at most BLM offices. Please report any errors in the data to the BLM office for which it was obtained. The BLM should be cited as the data source in any products derived from these data. Any Users wishing to modify the data should describe the types of modifications they have performed. The User should not misrepresent the data, nor imply that changes made were approved or endorsed by BLM. This information may be updated without notification.-------Original Text-------Please note that these maps represent climate projections only. While we have based our work on the best data and methods available, uncertainty is inherent in modeling. Uncertainty in model outputs tends to increase for more distant climate projections., Access Constraints: None, these data are considered public domain
Bbox East Long -150.347750245
Bbox North Lat 66.4383394417
Bbox South Lat 59.2429461389
Bbox West Long -161.469981259
Coupled Resource
Frequency Of Update asNeeded
Licence The BLM assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions. No warranty is made by the BLM as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of these data for individual use or aggregate use with other data; nor shall the act of distribution to contractors, partners, or beyond, constitute any such warranty for individual or aggregate data use with other data. Although these data have been processed successfully on computers of BLM, no warranty, expressed or implied, is made by BLM regarding the use of these data on any other system, or for general or scientific purposes, nor does the fact of distribution constitute or imply any such warranty. In no event shall the BLM have any liability whatsoever for payment of any consequential, incidental, indirect, special, or tort damages of any kind, including, but not limited to, any loss of profits arising out of the use or reliance on the geographic data or arising out of the delivery, installation, operation, or support by BLM.
Metadata Language
Metadata Type geospatial
Progress completed
Spatial Data Service Type
Spatial Reference System
Spatial Harvester True
Temporal Extent Begin 2011-01-01T000000
Temporal Extent End 2070-01-01

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